Publisher payday signaled by Anthropic settlement?

John Ebbert

Settlement

Publishers rejoice?

Anthopic has agreed to a whopping $1.5 billion settlement with book authors.

Possible payday incoming for Fox, Disney, The New York Times, Dow Jones, People, long tail publisher XYZ??

According to M.G. Siegler (a former TechCrunch reporter, current Google Ventures VC) Anthropic’s recent settlement is merely a ploy. In his newsletter last Friday, Mr. Siegler posed a question at the crux of his argument — and then answered it:

“By settling for $1.5B, is Anthropic sort of pulling up a drawbridge, making it so that other startups can’t possibly come into their castle? (…) This is a message to all competitors: a standard has been set, open up those wallets if you want to keep playing this game.”

Translation: Only Anthropic (and OpenAI) can play this game. So, don’t try it.

Read more in Mr. Siegler’s newsletter, Signal. (9/5)

From tipsheet: I’ll agree with Mr. Siegler about Anthropic’s ulterior motives, but I’ll take the settlement’s purpose a few steps further.

  • First, I don’t think Anthropic will ever pay out that amount and they know it (Mr. Siegler said this, too). It’s great marketing, and, more than that, it’s strategy.
  • Second, the settlement has little to do with authors or publishers.
  • Finally, the settlement is part of the often unspoken political game being played in Silicon Valley. And it’s really not a game or politics – it’s all business.

OpenAI has carved out the AI pole position in the AI industry as well as within the White House — i.e. the Trump Administration. CEO Sam Altman publicly participates in White House-sponsored events related to AI, innovation and investment — let alone whatever happens behind the scenes with the White House’s AI policy and its Crypto Czar.

Anthropic hasn’t necessarily shied away from the current Administration’s innovation-friendly policies. In fact, it continues to thrive. Most recently, innovation-friendly markets have rewarded the company with a healthy $13 billion fundraising last week (which can easily pay for Friday’s settlement).

But, the company is not at the pole position like OpenAI either in the realm of power politics or, arguably, AI.

Anthropic co-founder and CEO Dario Amodei, positions his company as focused on “AI safety and research” – this is a business strategy and part of the company’s differentiation in the AI marketplace.

With the settlement, Anthropic has done something that OpenAI, the bigger player, would likely never do. The unique benefits to Anthropic include:

  • Getting to say it’s protecting authors’ interests against overly-aggressive AI. What human doesn’t like the sound of that?
  • Aligning with a political left currently concerned about AI safety and consumer protections (and concerned about being on the other side of the Trump Administration).
  • Aligning with the enormous AI Existential Risk Industrial Complex which tilts left currently, but — let’s face it — it’s ready to play either side of the political aisle. It’s a party unto itself.

So, if politics tilts to the left in the U.S. via upcoming elections, Anthropic will have a shot at the pole position.

And, that is the bet: the U.S. government will ignite Anthropic’s chances and crush OpenAI when politics shift.

And sure… in jurisdictions already tilting left (Europe), Anthropic is likely benefiting. But, the U.S. is what matters most. Similar to how the United States owns the world’s reserve currency, the U.S. has the world’s reserve technology.

AI is a long game in spite of the short game that many in mainstream media seem to believe. With the settlement, Anthropic is just staying the course on its AI strategy and making a bet on politics.

Related: Anthropic endorses California’s AI safety bill, SB 53 (9/8) – TechCrunch

AI is driving up ad prices

A new report from agency WordStream by LOCALiQ said, “Facebook’s average cost per lead (CPL) climbed 21% year over year to $27.66. By comparison, Google’s average CPL is $70.11.” The data is focused on SMBs and it is clear, yet again, that Meta’s ads AI is having positive effects. Read more in Search Engine Land. (9/8)

More: Facebook Ads Benchmarks 2025: NEW Data, Trends, & Insights for Your Industry (9/8) – WordStream by LOCALiQ

Google: Open web in decline but new AI publishers

In a court filing on Friday by Google, the company said the open web is in decline even if some executives have previously said it isn’t.

The filing (PDF) was related to the upcoming Google ad tech antitrust remedies trial.

From page 5:

“The fact is that today, the open web is already in rapid decline and Plaintiffs’ divestiture proposal would only accelerate that decline, harming publishers who currently rely on open-web display advertising revenue.”

Jason Kint, who runs premium publisher organization Digital Content Next, said on X, “Google also claims AI has changed everything since this case was brought. This is Google’s ‘jazz hands’ that succeeded in the Search case (5yrs). But this case was filed 2yrs ago. WTF. Google claims we have ‘entirely new enormously popular publishers, such as AI chatbots’ !!!” Read his thread on X. (9/6)

Related: Google’s Proposed Fix To Its Ad Tech Monopoly Is At Odds With The DOJ’s Remedies (9/8) – AdExchanger

Infographic: Publisher deals, lawsuits with AI

From Sara Fischer of Axios: “This week we published our most comprehensive deep dive yet on the state of [AI and publishing]”. Read more on LinkedIn. (9/8)

Axios

Startup gets funding for ads in AI apps

Koah has raised $5 million in seed funding for advertising in AI apps, according to TechCrunch. Co-founder and CEO Nic Baird tried to distance his company’s product from the generative engine optimization (GEO) and answer engine optimization (AEO) startups already out there: “To be clear, Koah isn’t trying to introduce advertising to ChatGPT. (That’s probably something OpenAI will do for itself one day.) Instead, it’s focused on the ‘long tail’ of apps that are built on top of the big models, including apps with a user base outside the United States.” Read about it. (9/8)

From tipsheet: Another AI-related ad network enters the market. This appears to be traditional, contextual digital advertising in AI apps. See Koah’s advertiser and publisher pitches.

WSJ on AI transformation

  • How the AI Boom Is Leaving Consultants Behind (9/8) – WSJ
  • Salesforce Has to Prove Software’s Staying Power in AI Age (9/8) – WSJ
  • OpenAI Backs AI-Made Animated Feature Film (9/8) – WSJ

People moves

More

  • “Today, PubMatic filed a lawsuit against Google to hold it accountable for its monopolistic practices in digital advertising.” (9/8) – PubMatic
  • OpenAI Plans Aggressive India Marketing Push (9/8) – BW Marketing World
  • “We’re still buzzing from the success of our pilot day for an industry first, Horizon Media opened an RFP process for ad tech providers.” (9/8) – Horizon Media on LinkedIn
  • The influencer in this Vodafone ad isn’t real (9/8) – The Verge
  • Maybe You Shouldn’t Have Even Tried to Adopt AI (9/8) – TBPN