Trade organization IAB published its 2026 Outlook Study which included “insights into how media buyers are recalibrating growth strategies amid AI and agentic AI adoption.”
Among the key findings:
- “Ad spend growth accelerates in 2026: +9.5% (vs. +5.7% in 2025); excluding major events, growth is +7.1%–7.8%.”
- “AI dominates 2026 priorities: 5 of the top 6 buyer focus areas are AI; two-thirds center on agentic AI, with 96% awareness.”
- “AI is also the biggest challenge: buyers cite AI-driven consumer behavior shifts, agentic buying complexity, and GenAI campaign application.”
Full study. (PDF)
More: “IAB 2026 Outlook Study Forecasts 9.5% Growth in U.S. Ad Spend, Fueled by Digital Growth, Major Cyclical Events and Accelerating Adoption of Agentic AI” (January 28) – press release
From tipsheet: That’s impressive acceleration — and agentic awareness.
LLMs & CHATBOTS
Developments
- LinkedIn will let you show off your vibe coding chops with a certificate (January 28) – TechCrunch
- Microsoft Moves to Respond to New Threats From Anthropic (January 28) – The Information (subscription)
- Terminally online Mistral Vibe. (January 27) – Mistral
FINANCIALS
Meta reports blowout Q4 2025
Meta reported results for Q4 2025 yesterday that exceeded Wall Street’s expectations by 20%, according to The Wall Street Journal (January 28).
In its earnings press release, Meta highlighted ad pricing strength in spite of growing supply. Capex is going up, too:
- On ad impressions for the quarter: “Ad impressions delivered across our Family of Apps increased by 18% and 12% year-over-year for the fourth quarter and full year 2025, respectively.”
- On average price per ad: – “Average price per ad increased by 6% and 9% year-over-year for the fourth quarter and full year 2025, respectively.”
- On capital expenditures: “We anticipate 2026 capital expenditures, including principal payments on finance leases, to be in the range of $115-135 billion, with year-over-year growth driven by increased investment to support our Meta Superintelligence Labs efforts and core business.”
Read: “Meta Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results” (January 28) – Meta
SELL-SIDE
Google’s AI Overviews attracts UK regulator
The United Kingdom’s Competition and Markets Authority said yesterday that it is considering new rules which will require Google to provide more transparency on how publisher content is used in AI Overviews.
AI Overviews, which often run above Google Search results today, are believed by many to have disrupted search referral traffic to publisher sites and broken an unwritten quid pro quo agreement between Google and publishers.
Among the measures under review, the UK authority said it’s considering imposing AI opt-out requirements on Google that web publishers may take advantage of.
The WSJ’s Edith Hancock reported:
“Google has been a target for antitrust regulators globally for years. The search giant is classed as a gatekeeper in the European Union under the bloc’s Digital Markets Act, and officials started investigating how it uses content published online to feed its AI Overviews under that law in December last year.”
Read:
- “U.K. Competition Watchdog Plans New Rules for Google’s AI Overviews Under Tech Law” (January 28) – The Wall Street Journal (subscription)
- “CMA proposes package of measures to improve Google search services in UK” (January 28) – UK’s Competition and Markets Authority
From tipsheet: If the UK is successful in implementing these measures, it stands to reason whether these requirements could stretch across the globe.
Also — could some publishers opt to stay in AI Overviews? Citations within the LLM will need to prove their value.
RESEARCH
eMarketer unpacks Programmatic & AI
eMarketer principal analyst Yory Wurmser dropped a new graphic (below) showing his research firm’s prediction for programmatic ad spend in 2026 — $200 billion in the US alone.
Wurmser framed 2026 in terms of AI’s impact on programmatic on LinkedIn:
“AI isn’t new in programmatic advertising, but the new generation of LLMs is going to spur big changes in ad buying over the next couple of years. (…) The large social networks, along with Amazon and a handful of other retail media networks, have captured about three-quarters of display spending on their own buying platforms. These platforms have increasingly automated the full ad-buying process. In fact all six of the big social platforms now have these AI-optimized platforms.
Even beyond the biggest platforms, however, GenAI search engines are altering traffic patterns on the open web, raising the importance of premium inventory. That’s led to surge of ad dollars into private marketplaces.
We’re also starting to see the early stages of agentic ad buying and selling…”
Read more on LinkedIn. (January 28)
Related: Welcome to the Agentic AI Era: How Yahoo DSP Is Redefining Programmatic (January 22) – Yahoo! blog
LLMs & CHATBOTS
ChatGPT ad product expectations
In a post on Mobile Dev Memo, analyst Eric Seufert reviewed recent news about OpenAI’s $60 CPMs for ChatGPT’s imminent ad product.
He saw a method in OpenAI’s CPM pricing, lack of targeting and other initial shortcomings — since it’s still the early days of ad product development. But, the clock is ticking for the AI company.
Mr Seufert wrote:
“If OpenAI’s advertising platform doesn’t evolve meaningfully in six to twelve months to include conversion-optimized targeting and vastly better measurement, I’ll be skeptical of its success. But until then, given the high density of ex-Meta employees working for the company, I’m willing to give OpenAI the benefit of the doubt.”
Read: “OpenAI should know better” (January 27) – Mobile Dev Memo
Related: Podcast – “AI ad wars with Eric Seufert, Netflix (social) media battle, and OpenAI’s ecomm money grab.” (January 27) – ADSN on Apple Podcasts app
From tipsheet: We’re waiting on the OpenAI CAPI (Conversion API).
LLMs & CHATBOTS
When the answer is never the same
Search engine marketing specialist Rand Fishkin shared results of a new study that shows — according to his team’s methodology — answer engines are almost never giving the same response to the same query.
The implications here are that it’s difficult for a marketer to truly know how their citations in LLMs are doing.
By the end of the report on the study’s findings, Mr. Fishkin is begging:
“If you do nothing else after reading this report, please, please, marketers, analysts, and execs: stop throwing money at AI tracking products that don’t provide stats-backed, publicly-reviewable research. Before you spend a dime tracking AI visibility, make sure your provider answers the questions we’ve surfaced here and shows their math.”
Read more. (January 27)
More: “AI recommendation lists repeat less than 1% of the time: Study“ (January 28) – Search Engine Land
From tipsheet: Assuming Mr. Fishkin’s conclusions are correct, the work of answer engine optimization (AEO) or generative engine optimization (GEO) firms would appear to present several levels of complexity higher than that of your standard search engine optimization (SEO) firm’s efforts.
BRANDS
Survey: CTV ad buying momentum
Olyzon, which positions itself as an AI-powered agentic platform specializing in Connected TV (CTV) advertising, partnered with research firm eMarketer on a new white paper.
Called “CTV Spend Unlocks in 2026: Key Innovations Marketers Say They Need to Scale,” the survey reached out to 124 ad buyers. A selection of CTV insights included:
-
“…only 14.5% of respondents have fully shifted linear TV budgets to CTV, nearly half plan to redirect between 5% and 30% of their linear spend to CTV in 2026, signaling strong momentum and growing confidence in CTV’s role in the modern media mix.”
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“More than half of respondents expect CTV to deliver higher ROI than other digital video channels in 2026.”
Get the report. (PII required)
And, read the press release. (January 28)
Related: “State of Performance TV in 2026: Performance TV is officially the #1 spend channel” – Jason Fairchild, CEO, tvScientific on Beehiiv
From tipsheet: By the end of 2026, it will be interesting to see how much AI, automation and agents are a part of the CTV advertising landscape compared to today.
TECH
MNTN’s QuickFrame AI and table stakes
Advertising platform MNTN’s QuickFrame AI is on display in a new advertisement with Jaleel White, better known as Steve Urkel in the 1990s sitcom Family Matters.
The AI feature extends MNTN’s QuickFrame video ad product and allows marketers to quickly generate video ads using AI and at “no cost.” Marketers can then buy ads through MNTN on TikTok, Meta, and Google ad platforms.
Ad Age reported, “The new ad (see it on YouTube) introduces updated QuickFrame AI features that promise faster TV and social video creation.”
Read: “Jaleel White, aka Urkel, returns in MNTN ad that asks: ‘Did AI Do That?’” – Ad Age (subscription)
More: “MNTN’s Latest Innovation, QuickFrame AI, Scales Rapidly With New AI Video Features Including Consistent Characters, Products, and Locations Across Campaigns” (January 28) – press release
From tipsheet: AI is becoming table stakes when it comes to ad creative. Also, MNTN is uniquely pulling its “Hollywood” card in a video targeting B2B marketers.
FINANCIALS
Microsoft reports strong quarter
Microsoft reported a strong fiscal Q2 2026 which beat Wall Street expectations. But, its stock fell in after-hours trading late yesterday afternoon.
CEO Satya Nadella said in the release: “We are only at the beginning phases of AI diffusion and already Microsoft has built an AI business that is larger than some of our biggest franchises.”
Read:
- Earnings Release FY26 Q2 – Microsoft Cloud and AI Strength Drives Second Quarter Results (January 28 ) – Microsoft
- Microsoft shows gain on OpenAI investment after restructuring as cloud growth slows – CNBC
LLMs & CHATBOTS
Industry “takes” on ChatGPT ads
- “Why AI Ads Must Start with Brand, Not Performance” (January 28) – Bostjan Spetic, Head of Supply Labs, Teads on WordPress
- What do ads on ChatGPT tell us about the AI race? (January 27) – The Irish Times
- “ChatGPT needs Amazon more than Amazon needs ChatGPT” (January 28) – Adam Epstein, CEO, Gigi on Beehiiv
PEOPLE MOVES
Now hiring
- Former Amazon executive Avi Spivack has joined LiveRamp as VP Customer Growth & Insights (January 28) – LinkedIn
- Former Audigent executive Gina Cavallo has joined xplain.ai as Chief Revenue Officer (January 28) – LinkedIn
- Horizon Media President Bob Lord and former NBCU and Amazon executive Krishan Bhatia have joined Integral Ad Science’s board (January 28) – Lisa Utzschneider, CEO, IAS on LinkedIn
MORE
- Inside Meta’s AI-driven advertising system: How Andromeda and GEM work together (January 28) – Search Engine Land
- Meet the $1.3 Billion Startup (Higgsfield) Behind Madonna and Will Smith’s AI Video (January 28) – Adweek
- Manage The Emerging Costs Of Agentic Commerce By Taking A Cue From Dropshipping Strategy – Forrester Research
- “Is last-click costing Fortune 100s 6% of their marketing budget?” – Henry Innis, co-Founder, Mutinex on Substack
- Peer39 Interview Series: Jamie Barnard, CEO, Compliant – Peer39 blog