LLMs & CHATBOTS
OpenAI hits $12 billion annual run rate
“Source: OpenAI’s monthly revenue grew ~2x in the first seven months of 2025, hitting $12B in annualized revenue; the company’s 2025 revenue projection is $12.7B”
Read: The Information (July 31 – subscription)
A $20 billion annual revenue run rate appears attainable for OpenAI by end of year – and this is without an ads strategy.
For context, here is a selection of advertising-focused companies with various AI strategies and their projected 2025 annual revenues…
- Alphabet – $404 billion
- Meta Platforms – $196 billion
- Publicis Groupe – $18 billion
- Omnicom Group – $16 billion
- The Trade Desk – $2.8 billion
BRANDS
Outcomes, meet Marketplace
Just in time for the age of AI, outcomes will now have their own marketplace courtesy of Nielsen and its new “Outcomes Marketplace.”
“This new industry innovation is an interoperable ecosystem for partner measurement that will bring together a diverse set of key brand, sales, attention, and conversion metrics within the Nielsen ONE platform for the first time. With this new data, advertisers will have a more comprehensive view of an ad’s outcome alongside reach and frequency data.
Realeyes, which uses facial scanning technology for signal, is the first member of the marketplace.
Read the release. (July 31)
Joe Mandese on MediaPost covered the news and wrote:
“What’s not clear from this morning’s announcement is whether future Outcomes Marketplace offerings will be generating outcome metrics solely from Nielsen’s data, or from the other third parties it is partnering with.”
Read more of his analysis. (July 31)
BRANDS
Penry Price: B2B startups need brands
Former LinkedIn VP of marketing solutions, Penry Price, appeared recently on the Skakti VC show on YouTube as part of Shakti’s “Titan Insights” series.
Mr. Price, who now provides advisory services, touched on many topics related to B2B in the age of AI including his advice to startup founders in B2B:
“What I think will happen is customer acquisition costs – CAC – are going to change [due to AI]. The way we use tools and think about measurement will change. And the way we use ad agencies will change dramatically.
Being in tune with [this AI transition] is going to be important as founders and others [in the company] start to think about building a brand.
Especially in B2B, the brand itself is very important.
The data says that about 88% of purchases in B2B are either the first or second brand that those B2B committees already knew about. They don’t buy new brands in B2B. They buy brands they already have some kind of knowledge and relationship about with.
So somehow – at an early or mid-stage – you’ve got to start to recognize I’ve got to build my brand.”
Hear more on YouTube. (July 29)
AGENCIES
The human orchestration layer
Dane Buchanan, Chief Data and Analytics Officer at M+C Saatchi Performance, discussed the complexities of media measurement on Seedtag’s “Ad Tech Heroes” podcast.
Of course, AI was a topic of conversation as Mr. Buchanan looked into his crystal ball:
“What I’m most excited about is… we don’t know what jobs [AI is] going to create. It may not be a zero-sum game. ‘
‘AI replaces 80% of human work and it’s only leaves 20% for us to do.’
It could be that AI replaces 80% of human work – but actually – that pie has evolved to double what it was before. We’re still just as busy. We’ll need just as many people or more people to explain what those AI systems are doing.
I’m mostly excited about how it’s going to change media and the way we buy, optimize and plan for clients. (…) I think, at the moment, humans… the key part that we have to protect for ourselves is that orchestration layer…”
Hear more on the Apple Podcasts app. (July 31)
SELL-SIDE
Reddit sees growth from AI
“Reddit forecast third-quarter revenue above Wall Street estimates on Thursday, betting on growing digital advertising driven by its artificial intelligence-powered marketing tools.” – Reuters (July 31)
More: Reddit Announces Second Quarter 2025 Results (July 31) – Reddit
TECH
Amazon reports strong earnings
“Our conviction that AI will change every customer experience is starting to play out as we’ve expanded Alexa+ to millions of customers, continue to see our shopping agent used by many millions of customers,” said Amazon CEO Andy Jassy in the earnings release. Read it. (July 31)
“While $AMZN operating margin was better than expectations, it declined quarter over quarter to 11.4% compared to 11.8%. This is important because it’s a gauge on how automation is improving the business model. While it stepped back sequentially, it also stepped back March to June last year (from 10.7% to 9.9%).”
More:Amazon’s cloud business records 18% growth in second quarter – CNBC
TECH
Meta earnings reaction: Wall Street
Analyst reaction to Wednesday’s blowout Q2 2025 earnings report by Meta continued yesterday:
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Wedbush analyst Dan Ivessaid Meta’s and Microsoft’s strong Q2 results were a “watershed moment for the AI revolution.” Read IBD (July 31).
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New Street Research analyst Dan Salmon: “Looking ahead, ad revenue growth in 2026 looks to get strong support by gen AI ad creative tools, with a ‘meaningful amount of ad revenue’ already impacted by them, and 2M advertisers having tried gen AI video ad tools. These will support both performance and campaign volume, while ad impression growth has runway through engagement growth, Threads ad load, Facebook Notifications ad load, WhatsApp ad load, and eventually, Meta AI ads.” (July 30)
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Mobile Dev Memo analyst Eric Seufert: “There exists a pervasive narrative that frames Meta’s investments in AI as principally a future-focused, unproven, and risky bet. But Meta’s AI initiatives are bearing fruit now: they’re both a future prospect as well as a contemporaneous boon that is delivering impressive advertising impression and monetization growth fairly consistently. These investments aren’t speculative bets: they are demonstrable growth accelerants for the company’s core business, advertising.” Read Mobile Dev Memo (July 31).
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Evercore ISI analyst Mark Mahaney: “Meta is still facing some macro uncertainties in 2025, and the capex/investment pace is very aggressive, but the company is doing this from a clear position of strength. (…) A robust online ads market, strong user and engagement growth, ramping monetization, and excellent execution are all on display.” Read IBD (July 31).
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HSBC analyst Nicolas Cote-Colisson: “…artificial intelligence is creating opportunities for Meta that can support double-digit revenue growth in the coming years, particularly by bringing in more search-related traffic, ad dollars and tools for advertisers to reach clients.” Read CNBC. (July 31)
TECH
Meta earnings reaction: Meta
Meta VP of Global Clients and Agencies David Dugan, a former agency exec, said on LinkedIn yesterday:
“Our Meta Q2 earnings call yesterday – which highlighted the benefits of AI for advertiser ROI – made me think of one of the best early academic pieces on digital marketing. I spent 12 excellent years at Digitas North America back in the day, and two of my mentors – David Kenny and John Marshall – published an HBR piece in 2000 titled “Contextual Marketing – The Real Business of the Internet. (…)
25 years later, enter AI, and we’re delivering on exactly what was discussed in the piece, but in a Ferrari F1 car. It wouldn’t be a stretch to say that one of today’s strongest business applications of AI is delivering contextual ads and increasing advertiser ROI.”
Read more on LinkedIn. (July 31)
TECH
Google AI & ads tidbits
Below is a collection of news and updates this week related to Google’s AI efforts in advertising…
Google AI Max:
“…longer headlines and pulling content from blog posts (not just landing pages). And they’re driving higher ROAS.”
“Google has a new beta within Google Ads for Al Max ad group settings with search term matching. This shows when AI Max is turned on and…”
Google Search and AI Mode:
“Google is getting ready to roll out AI Mode ads widely by giving ad agencies and brands more information about how the new channel differs from traditional search and details about how paid AI search will work.”
Search Live with Video:
“To try out Search Live with video & Canvas, make sure you’ve opted into the AI Mode Labs experiment, where we introduce the most cutting-edge capabilities.”
AI Overviews:
“Been tracking this shift for months. My top-ranking pages are getting 40% fewer clicks but the brand mentions in AI Overviews are 10x’ing awareness. Wild trade off.”
POLICY
AI marketing materials and WSJ report
Lawyers at Morgan Lewis recently published a framework for in-house legal teams to “mitigate patent-related risks arising from AI marketing communications.”
The five steps of the framework are:
2. Avoiding technical overstatements or misrepresentations
3. Understanding competitor or NPE patent portfolios
4. Using care when referencing open-source or licensed tools
5. Developing internal guidelines for AI-related marketing
Read the details on the Morgan Lewis website. (July 23)
Related: Tech Giants Are Revising AI Product Claims That Faced Scrutiny (July 31) – The Wall Street Journal
PROMPT
How will incrementality attribution evolve in 5 years?
Response from Mistral’sLe Chat:
Incrementality attribution is expected to evolve significantly over the next five years, driven by advancements in technology, data analytics, and a deeper understanding of consumer behavior. Here are some key trends and developments that are likely to shape its evolution…
MORE
- Exclusive: Google is indexing ChatGPT conversations, potentially exposing sensitive user data (July 30) – Fast Company
- Apple reports biggest revenue growth since December 2021 – CNBC
- Podcast: An insider’s guide of the genesis of digital advertising (with Marketecture’s Ari Paparo – July 29) – Mobile Dev Memo
- Uber Eats is adding AI to menus, food photos, and reviews (July 31) – The Verge
- Dotdash Meredith Rebrands to People Inc. (July 31) – Adweek