Sources told The Information that OpenAI is raising its expectations for ad revenue through 2030.
The Information’s Sri Mupiddi reported yesterday that OpenAI’s 2026 ad revenue could be 50% higher than previous estimates:
“OpenAI expects advertising to generate about $2.4 billion in revenue this year and to quadruple next year, to nearly $11 billion, according to financial forecasts from the first quarter. A year ago, the company forecast it would generate $1.6 billion in revenue this year and $5.9 billion next year from users who didn’t pay for subscriptions, an amount the company likely expected to derive from advertising and e-commerce.
In 2030, OpenAI expects ads to generate about $102 billion, or 36% of its total revenue for that year. A year ago, it forecast nonpaying users would only generate $26.5 billion in sales that year.”
Note the divergence with the new 2026 estimate in comparison to 2025:
Read: “OpenAI Forecasts Advertising to Hit $102 billion by 2030” (April 9) – The Information (subscription)
From tipsheet: Expect the next OpenAI ad revenue revision to move higher.
The current 2030 ad revenue estimate for OpenAI is 50% of Meta’s $200 billion 2025 ad revenue.
The pie is getting much bigger — and moving faster than expected.
LLMs & CHATBOTS
Developments
- Making Claude Cowork ready for enterprise (April 9) – Anthropic’s Claude
- The Gemini app can now generate interactive simulations and models. (April 9) – Google The Keyword blog
- AI for Alzheimer’s (April 8) – OpenAI
TECH
Amazon CEO Andy Jassy’s letter
Amazon CEO Andy Jassy published his annual letter to shareholders. He discussed the company’s investment in the AI future which includes well-publicized and accelerating capital expenditures.
Among the key takeaways:
- AWS: “Three years into this AI wave, AWS’s AI revenue run rate is over $15 billion in Q1 2026 (nearly 260 times larger than AWS at that same point)—and ascending rapidly.”
- Chips business is generating $20 billion+ per year: “If our chips business was a stand-alone business, and sold chips produced this year to AWS and other third parties (as other leading chips companies do), our annual run rate would be ~$50 billion. There’s so much demand for our chips that it’s quite possible we’ll sell racks of them to third parties in the future.”
- Ads received a brief mention: “Our Advertising offerings continue to grow and deliver strong returns for brands, while newer businesses like Prime Video, Pharmacy, and Grocery are providing unique customer experiences, growing robustly, and improving their economics.”
Read: CEO Andy Jassy’s 2025 Letter to Shareholders (April 9) – Amazon
From tipsheet: Context…
2025 ad revenues
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- Amazon generated $68 billion (~12% of total revs) for 2025.
- Google generated ~$300 billion (~80% of total revs) in annual ad revenue run rate in Q4 2025, respectively.
- Meta generated ~$200 billion (~97% of total revs) in annual ad revenue run rate in Q4 2025, respectively.
2026 expected capital expenditures
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- Amazon – $200 billion
- Google – $185 billion
- Meta – $135 billion
Read TechCrunch. (February 5)
SELL-SIDE
Tubi, streaming comes to ChatGPT
Are video ads coming soon to ChatGPT?
Fox-owned Tubi announced the “launch of its native app within ChatGPT.” The company said the Tubi app would introduce “a new way for viewers to discover and watch Tubi’s collection of over 300,000 movies and TV episodes.”
TechCrunch reported on Wednesday:
- “The new ChatGPT integration suggests a strategic pivot: Instead of trying to replicate AI experiences in-house, Tubi is now meeting users where they’re already turning for answers. ChatGPT reached 900 million weekly active users in February. Tubi reports more than 100 million monthly active users.”
- “In separate news, Tubi recently launched the ‘Creatorverse Incubator,’ a new initiative aimed at supporting emerging content creators. The program offers promotional backing and potential funding opportunities for original shows that will debut exclusively on the platform.”
Read: Tubi is the first streamer to launch a native app within ChatGPT (April 8) – TechCrunch
More:
- “Tubi becomes first streamer to launch ChatGPT app” (April 7) – Tubi
- “Excited to launch Tubi’s native ChatGPT app today – the first of its kind for a streaming service” (April 8) – Mike Bidgoli, Chief Product Officer, Tubi on LinkedIn
From tipsheet: A few thoughts…
- Rumors of an OpenAI super app strategy (CNBC, March) are taking shape. It’s another reason OpenAI ad revenue could be supercharged way beyond current projections.
- Surfaces: With commerce, and now content, apps constantly being added, the potential surfaces for ads within ChatGPT is growing exponentially.
- Interesting to note Tubi’s parallel, and seemingly unrelated, creator incubator. Zoom out: creators are moving into ChatGPT, too.
More Tubi: from machine learning to LLMs
In The Wall Street Journal, Tubi’s new ChatGPT deal is featured. And the WSJ’s Belle Lin goes even deeper on Tubi’s technology transformation.
She reported yesterday (lightly edited):
- “The introduction of machine learning models in Tubi’s platform a decade ago enabled personalized recommendations for viewers—and, in turn, helped its advertisers target specific audiences, said Mike Bidgoli, Tubi’s chief product and technology officer. (…)”
- “The [AI] model has to optimize for just one metric always. Engagement,’ Tubi CEO Anjali Sud said. More recently, Tubi combined large language models, or LLMs, with deep learning techniques—enabling it to better understand ‘the nature of the user’s intent,’ Bidgoli says. For instance, an LLM can predict a user’s viewing patterns the way it predicts text from a few letters or words. The company uses a variety of commercial LLMs and its own custom model.”
- “That means Tubi can create a level of ‘hyper-personalization’—suggesting more personalized shows and movies, as well as ads, based on data like a user’s location and time of viewing, as well as watch history and even what’s in the content.”
Read: “Why Tubi Is Betting on AI to Win Over Gen Z Viewers” (April 9) – The Wall Street Journal (subscription)
SEARCH
Profound event: The Marketing Engineer
IAB VP of AI and Innovation Caroline Giegerich shared her observations after attending GEO provider Profound’s Zero Click summit in San Francisco on Wednesday.
She said in part:
- “A new role is emerging: ‘the Marketing Engineer’ – Part builder, part marketer — someone who thinks in systems, deploys agents, and is measured by pipeline outcomes.
- “Profound’s CEO James Cadwallader shared that beta customers of their new agents platform deployed 20,000 production agents in 6 weeks.”
Also, what works in AI search:
- “From LinkedIn: 60% of cited content is long-form. 95% is original, not reshared. Posts with 10+ comments drive significantly more citations.”
- “From G2: Pages with context summaries get 44% more citations. First-person review language outperforms corporate copy. Yes, stop using Marketoonist copy. ”
- “From Webflow: FAQ ‘answer primitives’ drove a 24% impression increase and 300+ new citations.”
- “From Reddit, Inc.: You need presence across ~350 subreddits. Three posts max per week. Be a good guest.”
- “The brands that show up in AI answers aren’t gaming the system. They’re earning trust at the infrastructure level.”
Read more on LinkedIn. (April 9)
LLMs & CHATBOTS
Salesforce defends itself — from Claude
Salesforce SVP of Strategy Martin Kihn defended his company in the face of perceived competition by AI companies — specifically Anthropic.
Mr. Kihn is a key member of CEO Mark Benioff’s strategy team.
Anthropic’s AI tools, including the Claude chatbot, are thought to present an existential threat to software-as-a-service (SaaS), Salesforce and its customer relationship management hegemony.
In a LinkedIn post, Kihn methodically compared Anthropic’s Claude and Salesforce (especially its agentic platform, AgentForce) in silos of partners, differences and overlap.
He concluded: “I think the boundary confusion comes from two things:
- “AgentForce and Cowork are both agent builders”
- “There are those MCP connectors…”
See his graphic on the two companies’ emerging division of labor.
From tipsheet: How Salesforce evolves and is able to thrive speaks to independent ad tech’s ability to do the same in the face of AI innovation.
AI’s evolution appears to be jet fuel for ad tech companies that can stay nimble and entrepreneurial. The walled gardens are certainly playing this game with their capex.
Underrated: AI tool companies need thriving customers to use them.
MARKETING
AI search: Brand marketers not panicking (yet)
Fast Company reviewed the state of play for AI visibility and generative engine optimization (GEO). Getting brands cited appropriately in AI chatbot search is becoming more urgent for marketers.
GEO specialists and tech companies are, unsurprisingly, eager to help.
Fast Company’s Jeff Beer reports:
-
“Brands and marketers who may be feeling a bit behind on all of this need not panic . . . yet. Sources I’ve talked to describe this moment in GEO as 1998 for search, or 2006 for social media—the very beginning stages of a transformational moment. The biggest difference is the pace of both technological development and audience adoption. Now is the time to be building the foundations onto which a bigger part of your business will be built. Brand executives and CMOs are on a sliding scale of acceptance of this messy new world of AI discoverability…”
Read: “GEO, AIEO, LLM search: How big brands are navigating the hype-infested world of getting noticed by ChatGPT, Claude, and Gemini—and winning.” (April 9) – Fast Company
Former Google and Twitter communications executive, Jim Prosser, also gets a mention by Fast Company.
Prosser said last month that “GEO is a racket” and it all comes down to a good communications strategy.
Read: “GEO” is a Racket”(March 10) – Jim Prosser on Substack
Related: “Dell use case for agentic AI could revolve around search rather than commerce” – Digital Commerce 360
CREATIVE
Latest AI activations include Amazon
In Ad Age , Chief Technology Reporter Garret Sloane reviewed his top 5 AI marketing activations.
He previewed his entertaining listicle on LinkedIn:
“We’re back with the AI top 5 at Ad Age, which I like to compile just to reflect on the past few weeks in generative AI, remember all that happened, since this is changing so fast. ‘How so?’ you ask:
(…) we see Amazon here with its creative AI studio, which is bringing smaller businesses into streaming TV advertising with examples from Red Canoe Credit Union and Traditional Medicinals. They used gen AI to buy CTV, and these lower-lift videos are getting better.”
Read more on LinkedIn. (April 9)
More: The top 5 AI marketing activations to know about right now (April 9) – Ad Age
Related: Amazon Ads launches new agentic AI tool that creates professional-quality ads (September 2025) – Amazon Ads
From tipsheet: SMBs love AI for its ability to effectively, and creatively, open up the CTV channel.
LLMs & CHATBOTS
Taboola: Your chatbot is my ad network
Taboola CEO Adam Singolda says his company’s Deeper Dive AI search product which comes with ads is gaining traction.
Originally launched in June of last year, Mr. Singolda said of Taboola’s growing chatbot ad network:
“With DeeperDive, alongside incredible publisher partners like USA Today, The Independent, India Today and many others launching nearly every week… we’re at ~7 million users in just six months. And today, we’re going global, adding new languages as publishers around the world lean in.
Tens of millions of questions every month…”
Next up, Singolda says he wants to pass Perplexity’s reported 30 million unique users.
See his aspirational graphic on LinkedIn. (April 9)
More: Taboola’s DeeperDive AI hits 7 million monthly users in 8 months (April 9) – Mediaweek
From tipsheet: We’re just getting started with the chatbot ad network model for the open web.
Taboola’s Deeper Dive and Amazon’s recent chatbot ad network exploration (The Information, March) is a precursor of more ad networks to come.
SELL-SIDE
OpenAI CRO Denise Dresser is 90 days in
OpenAI Chief Revenue Officer Denise Dresser reflected on her first 90 days at the company on LinkedIn yesterday.
The former Salesforce executive said: “In my first 90 days at OpenAI, one thing is clear: enterprise demand for AI is accelerating faster than anything I’ve seen in my career. We’re seeing it directly in the business. Enterprise now makes up more than 40% of our revenue and is on track to reach parity with consumer by 2026. Our APIs process 15B+ tokens per minute, and GPT-5.4 is driving record engagement across agentic workflows…”
Read more on LinkedIn. (April 9)
More: “The next phase of Enterprise AI” (April 8) – Denise Dresser on OpenAI
From tipsheet: Notably, Dresser’s communications were all about the enterprise business even though a note last week from OpenAI CEO of AGI Deployment Fidji Simo suggested Ms. Dresser was in charge of “all commercial teams.” In theory, this would include ads. It’s still unclear.
MORE
- Why We Licensed QuantumPath’s Agentic Buying Technology (April 9) – JWX CEO John Nardone on JWX’s blog
- Unity welcomes PubMatic as in-app ad network partner (April 9) – Unity on LinkedIn
- Code in OpenAI’s Ads Manager Suggests the Company Is Building Conversion Tracking Into ChatGPT (April 9) – Adweek (subscription)
- Visa unveils AI agent payment platform – Axios
- Yahoo DSP adds Smartly’s Incrmntal, an incrementality attribution vendor, to its partners list – Incrmntal on LinkedIn

